The 128 Team Playoff, Day 87: Wake Forest vs. North Carolina

Photo credit: Andrew Dye/North Carolina athletics


We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 88

(3) Wake Forest vs. (6) North Carolina

How Wake Forest Got Here: 48-6 win over (14) South Florida

How North Carolina Got Here: 27-13 win over (11) Rutgers

These two teams faced off to the tune of an exciting 58-55 victory for North Carolina in 2021. This simulation lived up to the hype that so many sequels fail to deliver.

This was an exciting battle between two top receivers in the ACC.

North Carolina’s Josh Downs had eight receptions, 125 yards, and a touchdown.

Wake Forest receiver A.T. Perry had nine receptions, 147 yards, and two touchdowns.

With just under a minute and all three timeouts, Sam Howell and North Carolina were 80 yards away, down 33-27.

After a few plays got the Tar Heels into Wake Forest territory, quarterback Sam Howell found Downs over the middle for a 40-yard touchdown.

North Carolina used some late-game heroics to win this one, 34-33.

In 100 simulations, North Carolina actually won 68 of them by an average margin of 37.3-24.7.

This is our fourth upset in the last five days.

Winner’s Next Matchup: (2) Utah

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (3) Miami vs. (6) LSU

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:


Massachusetts, Connecticut


Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic, Stanford, Tulane, Colorado, Wyoming, Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, Miami University, Indiana, Louisville, Georgia Tech, East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Michigan, Missouri, Syracuse, Tulsa, Western Michigan, Utah State, Liberty, UTSA, Boston College, Nevada, South Carolina, Army, Washington, Air Force, Virginia Tech


Toledo, Alabama, Illinois, TCU, UAB, Marshall, USC, San Diego State, California, UCF, Washington State, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Florida State, BaylorNC State, Louisiana, Ole MissMichigan State, Auburn, SMU, Wake Forest


American: 3/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 4/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 6/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 7/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 1/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 2/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 1/12 (highest remaining: 13. Kent State)

Mountain West: 2/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 4/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 8/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia)

Sun Belt: 4/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)