The 128 Team Playoff, Day 77: Pittsburgh vs. Fresno State

Photo courtesy of Pittsburgh athletics

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 78

(2) Pittsburgh vs. (7) Fresno State

How Pittsburgh Got Here: 65-10 win over (15) Charlotte

How Fresno State Got Here: 27-13 win over (10) Tulsa

Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett came out slinging the rock in this one.

Pickett was 25-for-38 with 339 yards and a touchdown. This included a 3-for-3 start where he threw three consecutive passes of 15 or more yards.

Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener had a similar start. Haener ended up 35-for-49 with 454 yards and four passing touchdowns.

The major difference in this one was running back production.

Fresno State’s Ronnie Rivers had 110 yards rushing and averaged 5.5 yards per carry. Pitt running back Vincent Davis only had 48 yards and averaged four yards per carry.

Fresno State’s five field goals also definitely helped out.

Fresno State pulls off the second upset of the second round. The Bulldogs get past the Panthers, 43-27.

In 100 simulations, Pitt only won 54 of them by an average score of 30.8-27.7.

Winner’s Next Matchup: Winner of (3) Arkansas vs. (6) SMU

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (2) Wisconsin vs. (7) Oregon State

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic, Stanford, Tulane, Colorado, Wyoming, Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, Miami University, Indiana, Louisville, Georgia Tech, East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Michigan, Missouri, Syracuse, Tulsa, Western Michigan, Utah State, Liberty, UTSA, Boston College, Nevada, South Carolina, Army, Washington, Air Force, Virginia Tech

ROUND 2

Toledo, Alabama, Illinois, TCU, UAB, Marshall, USC, San Diego State, California, UCF, Washington State, Pittsburgh

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 4/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 7/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 7/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 8/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 1/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 2/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 1/12 (highest remaining: 13. Kent State)

Mountain West: 2/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 5/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 10/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia)

Sun Belt: 5/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)