The 128 Team Playoff, Day 7: Notre Dame vs. Bowling Green

Photo courtesy of Notre Dame athletics

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 8

(1) Notre Dame vs. (16) Bowling Green

This one had a surprising result that definitely has Notre Dame’s kicker, Jonathan Doerer, as the MVP. Doerer was 4-for-5 on field goals, which would go on to be the difference between the Fighting Irish and the Falcons.

The main reason for needing so many field goals was the Bowling Green run defense holding Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams to 48 rushing yards on 15 carries.

Bowling Green quarterback Matt McDonald had 234 passing yards and two touchdowns. However, he did have two interceptions.

For Bowling Green to have beaten Notre Dame, it would’ve required no mistakes from McDonald, and those two interceptions might’ve been the difference.

Notre Dame quarterback Jack Coan also added 266 passing yards, two touchdowns, and an interception on 25-for-35 passing.

Notre Dame wins a dangerously close game with Bowling Green, 26-17

In 100 simulations, Notre Dame only won 71 of them by an average margin of 25.3 to 18.0. Notre Dame should be on high alert, because no 1-seed has had such a close margin with a 16-seed over a large sample.

Winner’s Next Matchup: Winner of (8) Nevada vs. (9) Marshall

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (1) Oklahoma State vs. (16) Rice

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 10/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 14/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 10/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 14/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 13/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 4/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 10/12 (highest remaining: 9. Toledo)

Mountain West: 11/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 12/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 14/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia, 1. Alabama)

Sun Belt: 10/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)