The 128 Team Playoff, Day 47: Louisville vs. Georgia State

Photo credit: Taris Smith/Louisville athletics


We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 48

(6) Louisville vs. (11) Georgia State

Georgia State’s unique offense was particularly challenging for Louisville. Both on the ground and through the air, Georgia State was able to move the ball.

Georgia State quarterback Darren Grainger was 18-for-25 with 159 passing yards. He also added 67 rushing yards and a touchdown on 15 carries.

Running backs Jamyest Williams and Tucker Gregg combined for 151 yards and two rushing touchdowns on 27 carries.

Quarterback Malik Cunningham tried to be the hero Louisville needed. Georgia State’s defense did an excellent job at stifling Cunningham’s dynamic presence.

Cunningham was 11-for-22 with 105 yards, two passing touchdowns, and an interception. He also had 49 rushing yards on 12 attempts.

Simply put, Louisville just could not get stops down the stretch when it needed them most.

Georgia State pulls off the upset, winning 30-17.

In 100 simulations, Louisville won 83 of them by an average margin of 34.6-17.4.

This is one of the highest ratios for a No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup. This simulation just happened to be unlucky for the Cardinals.

Winner’s Next Matchup: (3) Michigan State

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (6) Virginia vs. (11) Georgia Tech

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:


Massachusetts, Connecticut


Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic, Stanford, Tulane, Colorado, Wyoming, Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, Miami University, Indiana, Louisville


American: 7/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 12/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 9/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 9/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 4/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 4/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 5/12 (highest remaining: 9. Toledo)

Mountain West: 6/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 9/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 13/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia, 1. Alabama)

Sun Belt: 5/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)