Photo courtesy of Texas A&M athletics
Introduction
We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.
“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.
For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.
For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.
Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.
All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.
This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.
From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:
Match 117
(2) Texas A&M vs. (4) Oregon
How Texas A&M Got Here: 40-10 win over (15) Ohio, 31-13 win over (7) Florida State, 26-18 win over (11) Georgia State
How Oregon Got Here: 44-6 win over (13) Buffalo, 31-21 win over (5) Kansas State, 45-41 win over (1) Ohio State
Neither quarterback played great, but they both put their teams in a position to win.
Both quarterbacks started slow, with neither surpassing the 100-yard mark in the first half of the game.
Oregon quarterback Anthony Brown was 24-for-35 with 218 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.
Texas A&M quarterback Zach Calzada was 21-for-30 with 270 yards and two touchdowns.
Both of these teams relied on the running backs to grind out some tough games these past few years.
Ultimately it was Oregon running back Byron Cardwell who blew this game open late. Calzada was able to add a rushing touchdown late to cut the 24-10 lead to seven, but the Aggies struggled to move the ball on the ground.
Running back Isaiah Spiller finished with 54 rushing yards on 12 carries. He was quite the dynamic presence in the passing game, though, leading all players with 89 yards on five receptions.
Oregon wins a game that neither team took a strong grasp of at any point. The Ducks win and advance, 24-17.
In 100 simulations, Oregon won a surprisingly high 66 times by an average margin of 26.9-20.8.
Even after losing Texas A&M, the SEC still has the most teams remaining in the tournament, with three. No. 1 Georgia has already secured a spot in the Elite Eight. No. 3 Arkansas faces No. 1 Oklahoma next. No. 4 Tennessee still has to face a scrappy No. 2 Cincinnati.
Winner’s Next Matchup: Winner of (1) Notre Dame vs. (2) Utah
Tomorrow’s Matchup: (1) Michigan vs. (6) Coastal Carolina
Updated Bracket
Note: Texas A&M is listed as having beaten Oregon. That is corrected on Day 118.
Teams Lost, In Order:
PLAY-IN
Massachusetts, Connecticut
ROUND 1
Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic, Stanford, Tulane, Colorado, Wyoming, Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, Miami University, Indiana, Louisville, Georgia Tech, East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Michigan, Missouri, Syracuse, Tulsa, Western Michigan, Utah State, Liberty, UTSA, Boston College, Nevada, South Carolina, Army, Washington, Air Force, Virginia Tech
ROUND 2
Toledo, Alabama, Illinois, TCU, UAB, Marshall, USC, San Diego State, California, UCF, Washington State, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Florida State, Baylor, NC State, Louisiana, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Auburn, SMU, Wake Forest, Miami, Western Kentucky, Purdue, Arizona State, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kent State, Kansas State, UCLA, Appalachian State
ROUND 3
Iowa, Florida, Ohio State, Mississippi State, Houston, Boise State, Oklahoma State, BYU, Iowa State, LSU, North Carolina, Fresno State, Wisconsin, Georgia State, Virginia, Memphis
ROUND 4
Penn State, Texas Tech, Texas A&M
REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:
American: 1/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)
ACC: 1/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)
Big 12: 2/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma)
Big Ten: 2/14 (highest remaining: 1. Michigan)
Conference USA: 0/14 (last remaining was No. 6 Western Kentucky, eliminated Day 89)
Independents: 1/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)
MAC: 0/12 (last remaining was No. 13 Kent State, eliminated Day 94)
Mountain West: 0/12 (last remaining was No. 7 Fresno State, eliminated Day 109)
Pac-12: 2/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)
SEC: 3/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia)
Sun Belt: 1/10 (highest remaining: 6. Coastal Carolina)
