Photo courtesy of Mark Selders/Penn State athletics
Introduction
We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.
“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.
For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.
For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.
Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.
All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.
This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.
From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:
Match 114
(3) Penn State vs. (10) Memphis
How Penn State Got Here: 31-27 win over (14) UNLV, 31-17 win over (6) Louisiana
How Memphis Got Here: 27-20 win over (7) West Virginia, 31-24 win over (2) NC State
We have reached the final matchup of the third round! And it seems like the simulator saved the greatest performance of this round for the end.
During the 2021 season, Penn State receiver Jahan Dotson set the school record for single game receiving yards with 242.
In this simulation, he broke that record — by 68 yards. He also broke the single-game receptions record.
In all, Dotson finished with 15 receptions and 310 yards. And perhaps most surprisingly, zero touchdowns.
Quarterback Sean Clifford was 29-for-42 with 451 yards and two passing touchdowns. 451 yards would be the second most passing yards in a game in Penn State history.
So Penn State set some records; how about Memphis? Not exactly.
Quarterback Seth Henigan was a respectable 21-for-38 with 247 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.
In a game billed as a battle between top receivers, Memphis’ Calvin Austin III put up a stat line of four receptions, 93 yards, and a touchdown.
Largely behind Dotson’s record-setting day, Penn State dominates this one. The Nittany Lions win, 47-10.
In 100 simulations, Penn State won 71 by a margin of 26.9-17.4.
With Memphis’ loss, the American Athletic Conference is down to just Cincinnati.
Winner’s Next Matchup: (1) Georgia
Tomorrow’s Matchup: (1) Georgia vs. (3) Penn State
Updated Bracket
Teams Lost, In Order:
PLAY-IN
Massachusetts, Connecticut
ROUND 1
Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic, Stanford, Tulane, Colorado, Wyoming, Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, Miami University, Indiana, Louisville, Georgia Tech, East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Michigan, Missouri, Syracuse, Tulsa, Western Michigan, Utah State, Liberty, UTSA, Boston College, Nevada, South Carolina, Army, Washington, Air Force, Virginia Tech
ROUND 2
Toledo, Alabama, Illinois, TCU, UAB, Marshall, USC, San Diego State, California, UCF, Washington State, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Florida State, Baylor, NC State, Louisiana, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Auburn, SMU, Wake Forest, Miami, Western Kentucky, Purdue, Arizona State, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kent State, Kansas State, UCLA, Appalachian State
ROUND 3
Iowa, Florida, Ohio State, Mississippi State, Houston, Boise State, Oklahoma State, BYU, Iowa State, LSU, North Carolina, Fresno State, Wisconsin, Georgia State, Virginia, Memphis
REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:
American: 1/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)
ACC: 1/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)
Big 12: 3/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma)
Big Ten: 3/14 (highest remaining: 1. Michigan)
Conference USA: 0/14 (last remaining was No. 6 Western Kentucky, eliminated Day 89)
Independents: 1/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)
MAC: 0/12 (last remaining was No. 13 Kent State, eliminated Day 94)
Mountain West: 0/12 (last remaining was No. 7 Fresno State, eliminated Day 109)
Pac-12: 2/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)
SEC: 4/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia)
Sun Belt: 1/10 (highest remaining: 6. Coastal Carolina)
