Photo courtesy of Houston athletics
Introduction
We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.
“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.
For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.
For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.
Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.
All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.
This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.
From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:
Match 103
(1) Oklahoma vs. (5) Houston
How Oklahoma Got Here: 52-7 win over (16) New Mexico, 38-20 win over (8) UAB
How Houston Got Here: 23-14 win over (12) Florida Atlantic, 30-23 win over (4) Kentucky
One of the most commonly exploited mismatches when top Group of 5 teams get a shot at elite Power 5 teams, is the size difference in the trenches. Often, Group of 5 teams display plenty of speed and athleticism on the outside. But the game is still won in the trenches, and that is often the deciding factor.
That whole paragraph is the definition of foreshadowing, by the way.
Oklahoma running back Kennedy Brooks led all rushers. Brooks finished with 140 yards on 22 carries.
Quarterback Caleb Williams added 109 rushing yards and a touchdown on nine attempts. Williams was also 25-for-36 through the air, with 258 yards and two touchdowns.
In a distant third was Houston running back Mulbah Carr, who ran for 34 yards and a touchdown on six carries. Starting running back Alton McCaskill was absolutely stymied, running for 24 yards on nine carries.
Quarterback Clayton Tune and receiver Nathaniel Dell did what they could to keep Houston in the game, but it was not enough. Tune was 21-for-32 with 278 yards and two touchdowns; Dell hauled in seven passes for 113 yards and two touchdowns.
Oklahoma was able to put this game on ice with a lengthy drive involving nine runs that Houston could not stop. The Sooners win, 36-21.
In 100 simulations, Oklahoma won 88 of them by an average margin of 34.7-15.9.
Winner’s Next Matchup: Winner of (3) Arkansas vs. (7) Fresno State
Tomorrow’s Matchup: (1) Notre Dame vs. (5) Boise State
Updated Bracket
Teams Lost, In Order:
PLAY-IN
Massachusetts, Connecticut
ROUND 1
Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic, Stanford, Tulane, Colorado, Wyoming, Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, Miami University, Indiana, Louisville, Georgia Tech, East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Michigan, Missouri, Syracuse, Tulsa, Western Michigan, Utah State, Liberty, UTSA, Boston College, Nevada, South Carolina, Army, Washington, Air Force, Virginia Tech
ROUND 2
Toledo, Alabama, Illinois, TCU, UAB, Marshall, USC, San Diego State, California, UCF, Washington State, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Florida State, Baylor, NC State, Louisiana, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Auburn, SMU, Wake Forest, Miami, Western Kentucky, Purdue, Arizona State, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kent State, Kansas State, UCLA, Appalachian State
ROUND 3
Iowa, Florida, Ohio State, Mississippi State, Houston
REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:
American: 2/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)
ACC: 3/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)
Big 12: 5/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)
Big Ten: 4/14 (highest remaining: 1. Michigan)
Conference USA: 0/14 (last remaining was No. 6 Western Kentucky, eliminated Day 89)
Independents: 2/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)
MAC: 0/12 (last remaining was No. 13 Kent State, eliminated Day 94)
Mountain West: 2/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)
Pac-12: 2/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)
SEC: 5/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia)
Sun Belt: 2/10 (highest remaining: 6. Coastal Carolina)
