The 128 Team Playoff, Day 100: Ohio State vs. Oregon

by | May 10, 2022 | Big Ten, Football, Ohio State, Oregon, Pac-12

Photo courtesy of Oregon athletics

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 101

(1) Ohio State vs. (4) Oregon

How Ohio State Got Here: 66-7 win over (16) Florida International, 37-3 win over (9) Illinois

How Oregon Got Here: 44-6 win over (13) Buffalo, 31-21 win over (5) Kansas State

In a contest that took place on Sept. 11 in 2021, everyone knows that Oregon won the first matchup. But would history be destined to repeat itself?

For the third straight game, Ohio State receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba went for multiple touchdown receptions, 100 yards, and led the Buckeyes in receiving yards.

If these individual simulations of hypothetical matchups are any indication of next year, responsibly taking a flyer on Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the Heisman Trophy might not be a bad idea.

Quarterback CJ Stroud was 25-for-34 with 346 yards and four touchdowns. Running back Treveyon Henderson averaged 7.2 yards per carry on his 10 attempts.

Ohio State ultimately put up 41 points. Was it enough?

Oregon quarterback Anthony Brown was 28-for-39 with 324 yards and two touchdowns. Brown also added 87 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.

The game’s leading rusher was Oregon’s Travis Dye, who ran for 95 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries.

Ohio State’s offense was great. Unfortunately, for the Buckeyes, Oregon’s was just a touch better in this one. The Ducks win yet again, 45-41.

In 100 simulations, Ohio State won 82 of them by an average margin of 40.6-26.1.

So, in 100 simulations, it was a 14.5-point difference. Too bad for Ohio State, this is a single-simulation tournament — a roll of the dice.

Winner’s Next Matchup: Winner of (2) Texas A&M vs. (11) Georgia State

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (1) Michigan vs. (5) Mississippi State

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic, Stanford, Tulane, Colorado, Wyoming, Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, Miami University, Indiana, Louisville, Georgia Tech, East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Michigan, Missouri, Syracuse, Tulsa, Western Michigan, Utah State, Liberty, UTSA, Boston College, Nevada, South Carolina, Army, Washington, Air Force, Virginia Tech

ROUND 2

Toledo, Alabama, Illinois, TCU, UAB, Marshall, USC, San Diego State, California, UCF, Washington State, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Florida State, BaylorNC State, Louisiana, Ole MissMichigan State, Auburn, SMU, Wake Forest, Miami, Western Kentucky, Purdue, Arizona State, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kent State, Kansas State, UCLA, Appalachian State

ROUND 3

Iowa, FloridaOhio State

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 3/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 3/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 5/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 4/14 (highest remaining: 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 0/14 (last remaining was No. 6 Western Kentucky, eliminated Day 89)

Independents: 2/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 0/12 (last remaining was No. 13 Kent State, eliminated Day 94)

Mountain West: 2/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 2/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 6/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia)

Sun Belt: 2/10 (highest remaining: 6. Coastal Carolina)

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