The 128 Team Playoff, Day 96: UCLA vs. Florida

by | May 6, 2022 | Florida, Football, Pac-12, SEC, UCLA

Photo courtesy of Florida athletics

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 97

(4) UCLA vs. (5) Florida

How UCLA Got Here: 56-7 win over (13) Troy

How Florida Got Here: 31-24 win over (12) Eastern Michigan

Just looking at the leading rushers and the quarterback performances, the final score does not entirely make sense. But sometimes, things like kick returns and the context of when an interception is thrown is important.

Florida quarterback Emory Jones finished 26-for-39 with 303 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions. Jones also added 58 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.

UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson was 19-for-33 with 234 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Thompson-Robinson also added 28 rushing yards to his total.

Florida’s leading rusher was Dameon Pierce, who ran for 73 yards on 11 carries.

UCLA’s leading rusher was Zach Charbonnet, who rushed for 89 yards on 13 touches.

Spoiler alert: Florida won by 16. So how did the Gators win by that much when the score would indicate a close game that UCLA should’ve won?

A Malik Davis kickoff return for a touchdown touchdown to open the second half certainly helped the Gators’ cause.

Also, Thompson-Robinson’s interception was nearly returned for a touchdown, with Jones scoring on a read option a play later.

Finally, there’s the difference between going 4-for-4 on field goals compared to 1-for-3. It makes a little more sense for how the final score got to be that way.

Florida wins 33-17, even if the stat sheet wouldn’t really support such a clear victory.

In 100 simulations, Florida won 68 by an average margin of 28.7-25.6.

Fun fact, that bottom right bracket saw only the favorites win in the first round, and then only the underdogs win the second round. What are the chances?

Winner’s Next Matchup: (8) Maryland

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (4) Iowa vs. (5) Appalachian State

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic, Stanford, Tulane, Colorado, Wyoming, Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, Miami University, Indiana, Louisville, Georgia Tech, East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Michigan, Missouri, Syracuse, Tulsa, Western Michigan, Utah State, Liberty, UTSA, Boston College, Nevada, South Carolina, Army, Washington, Air Force, Virginia Tech

ROUND 2

Toledo, Alabama, Illinois, TCU, UAB, Marshall, USC, San Diego State, California, UCF, Washington State, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Florida State, BaylorNC State, Louisiana, Ole MissMichigan State, Auburn, SMU, Wake Forest, Miami, Western Kentucky, Purdue, Arizona State, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kent State, Kansas State, UCLA

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 3/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 3/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 5/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 6/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 0/14 (last remaining was No. 6 Western Kentucky, eliminated Day 89)

Independents: 2/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 0/12 (last remaining was No. 13 Kent State, eliminated Day 94)

Mountain West: 2/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 2/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 7/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia)

Sun Belt: 3/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)

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