The 128 Team Playoff, Day 84: Michigan State vs. Georgia State

by | Apr 24, 2022 | Big Ten, Football, G5, Georgia Southern, Michigan State

Photo courtesy of Michigan State athletics

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 85

(3) Michigan State vs. (11) Georgia State

How Michigan State Got Here: 58-14 win over (14) UTEP

How Georgia State Got Here: 30-17 win over (6) Louisville

The most impressive performance of this game was a two-player race between Georgia State quarterback Darren Grainger and Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III.

Grainger was 18-for-28 passing with 258 yards and two passing touchdowns. He also added 48 yards rushing on eight carries.

Walker had 156 rushing yards and a touchdown on 20 carries — good for 7.8 yards per rush.

Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne could have been a little more crisp. He was 12-for-25 with 125 yards and an interception.

In looking back on this game, Thorne’s performance is one that Spartan fans can point to as culpable for the loss.

Georgia State pulls off another upset, beating Michigan State, 30-10.

In 100 simulations, Michigan State won 80 of them by an average margin of 32.9-16.4. Much like Memphis, it’s a good thing Georgia State only needed to win the first simulation!

Winner’s Next Matchup: (2) Texas A&M

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (3) Auburn vs. (6) Coastal Carolina

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic, Stanford, Tulane, Colorado, Wyoming, Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, Miami University, Indiana, Louisville, Georgia Tech, East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Michigan, Missouri, Syracuse, Tulsa, Western Michigan, Utah State, Liberty, UTSA, Boston College, Nevada, South Carolina, Army, Washington, Air Force, Virginia Tech

ROUND 2

Toledo, Alabama, Illinois, TCU, UAB, Marshall, USC, San Diego State, California, UCF, Washington State, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Florida State, BaylorNC State, Louisiana, Ole MissMichigan State

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 4/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 5/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 6/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 7/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 1/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 2/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 1/12 (highest remaining: 13. Kent State)

Mountain West: 2/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 4/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 9/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia)

Sun Belt: 4/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)

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