The 128 Team Playoff, Day 83: Ole Miss vs. Virginia

by | Apr 23, 2022 | ACC, Football, Ole Miss, SEC, Virginia

Photo courtesy of Ole Miss athletics

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 84

(3) Ole Miss vs. (6) Virginia

How Ole Miss Got Here: 27-0 win over (14) Georgia Southern

How Virginia Got Here: 35-28 win over (11) Georgia Tech

Typically, Ole Miss’ offense has plenty to keep its opponent off balance. But in this particular simulation, the Virginia defense was ready.

Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral was only 13-for-25 passing with 175 yards and a touchdown.

Compare that to Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong, and the result becomes pretty clear.

Armstrong was 33-for-51 with 506 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception.

Receiver Keytaon Thompson also had himself a day with 12 receptions, 182 yards, and two receiving touchdowns.

Virginia blows the doors off of the “Lane Train” and Ole Miss. The Cavaliers win going away, 47-17.

In 100 simulations, Ole Miss won 59 by an average margin of 35.9-31.4. A 30-point blowout in Virginia’s favor was the widest margin of victory for a Virginia win. In the 100 games, the next biggest win for Virginia was 15 points.

Winner’s Next Matchup: (7) Texas Tech

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (3) Michigan State vs. (11) Georgia State

Updated Bracket

Notice how the bottom right has only seen upsets in the second round thus far after only seeing the favorites win in the first round?

What a fun coincidence.

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic, Stanford, Tulane, Colorado, Wyoming, Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, Miami University, Indiana, Louisville, Georgia Tech, East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Michigan, Missouri, Syracuse, Tulsa, Western Michigan, Utah State, Liberty, UTSA, Boston College, Nevada, South Carolina, Army, Washington, Air Force, Virginia Tech

ROUND 2

Toledo, Alabama, Illinois, TCU, UAB, Marshall, USC, San Diego State, California, UCF, Washington State, Pittsburgh, Oregon State, Florida State, BaylorNC State, Louisiana, Ole Miss

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 4/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 5/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 6/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 8/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 1/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 2/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 1/12 (highest remaining: 13. Kent State)

Mountain West: 2/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 4/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 9/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia)

Sun Belt: 4/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)

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