The 128 Team Playoff, Day 78: Wisconsin vs. Oregon State

by | Apr 18, 2022 | Big Ten, Football, Oregon State, Pac-12, Wisconsin

Photo credit: David Stluka/Wisconsin Athletic Communications

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 79

(2) Wisconsin vs. (7) Oregon State

How Wisconsin Got Here: 27-0 win over (15) Southern Mississippi

How Oregon State Got Here: 24-13 win over (10) Syracuse

Wisconsin running back Braelon Allen set the Badgers up to score a lot of points early. He finished with 18 carries and 123 yards.

Three of those carries were for more than 20 yards, and allowed Graham Mertz to play quarterback a little more freely.

Mertz finished 17-for-25 with 264 yards and four touchdowns.

Oregon State quarterback Chance Nolan was a little too loose with the ball. He was 19-for-36 with 264 yards, a touchdown, and three interceptions.

Running back Deshaun Fenwick had a solid game of 73 yards on 13 carries for the Beavers. But that isn’t the type of game that could help overcome three interceptions from Nolan.

Wisconsin utilized a very balanced offensive attack to stomp Oregon State. The Badgers win, 45-13.

In 100 simulations, Wisconsin actually won a minority of the games. Surprisingly, Oregon State won 55 of them.

It’s hard to say why ncaagamesim.com thinks so much more highly of Oregon State than ESPN. Nevertheless, Oregon State held a narrow margin in the 100 simulations — 23.6-23.4.

Winner’s Next Matchup: Winner of (3) Auburn vs. (6) Coastal Carolina

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (2) Texas A&M vs. (7) Florida State

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic, Stanford, Tulane, Colorado, Wyoming, Middle Tennessee, Rutgers, Miami University, Indiana, Louisville, Georgia Tech, East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Michigan, Missouri, Syracuse, Tulsa, Western Michigan, Utah State, Liberty, UTSA, Boston College, Nevada, South Carolina, Army, Washington, Air Force, Virginia Tech

ROUND 2

Toledo, Alabama, Illinois, TCU, UAB, Marshall, USC, San Diego State, California, UCF, Washington State, Pittsburgh, Oregon State

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 4/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 7/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 7/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 8/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 1/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 2/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 1/12 (highest remaining: 13. Kent State)

Mountain West: 2/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 4/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 10/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia)

Sun Belt: 5/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)

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