The 128 Team Playoff, Day 38: Houston vs. Florida Atlantic

by | Mar 9, 2022 | FAU, Football, Houston

Photo courtesy of Houston athletics

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 39

(5) Houston vs. (12) Florida Atlantic

Based on the box score, this game should not have been anywhere near as close as it was.

Houston quarterback Clayton Tune was 35-for-55 with 376 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Alton McCaskill had 72 rushing yards on 15 carries.

Contrast that to Florida Atlantic offensive output, and this one should’ve been a multiple-score difference.

Florida Atlantic quarterback N’Kosi Perry was 17-for-32 with 188 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Owls’ leading rusher, James Charles, had 18 yards on three carries.

Yet, this one was a tightly contested game throughout.

At halftime, the score was knotted up at 14.

Perry threw both of his interceptions in the second half. Thankfully for the Owls, Houston could only turn those interceptions into field goals.

After forcing a turnover on downs at 4th-and-5 at midfield, Houston iced the game with a late field goal to take a two-possession lead.

Houston wins 23-14 in a game it should’ve dominated on the scoreboard.

In 100 simulations, Houston only won 53 by an average margin of 22.1-20.2.

Houston better be careful going forward after being put on upset watch in both the 100 simulations and the single-game simulation.

Winner’s Next Matchup: (4) Kentucky

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (5) Boise State vs. (12) Stanford

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, Florida Atlantic

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 8/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 13/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 9/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 11/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 5/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 4/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 6/12 (highest remaining: 9. Toledo)

Mountain West: 7/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 11/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 13/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia, 1. Alabama)

Sun Belt: 5/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)

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