The 128 Team Playoff, Day 37: Mississippi State vs. Northern Illinois

by | Mar 8, 2022 | Football, G5, MAC, Mississippi State, Northern Illinois, SEC

Photo courtesy of Mississippi State Athletics

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 38

(5) Mississippi State vs. (12) Northern Illinois

The question coming into this one was clear: will Northern Illinois be able to stop the Mike Leach Air Raid?

The short answer was no.

Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers was 37-for-51 with 470 yards and four touchdowns. Five receivers had over 60 receiving yards with the leading receiver, Jaden Walley, accounting for 95 yards.

Northern Illinois quarterback Rockey Lombardi and running back Jevyon Ducker struggled to keep the Huskies in this one.

Lombari was 19-for-34 with 176 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception. He also added 28 rushing yards on nine attempts.

Ducker had 66 rushing yards on 15 carries.

In a bracket format, it’s about who can get hot at the right time. Going forward, teams are going to need to be able to stop the air raid, lest they want Rogers and the Bulldogs to get hot.

Unfortunately for Northern Illinois, it was not able to be that team. Mississippi State advances, 41-15.

In 100 simulations, Mississippi State won 91 of them by an average score of 38-17.1.

Winner’s Next Matchup: (13) Kent State

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (5) Houston vs. (12) Florida Atlantic

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota, Navy, Nebraska, Buffalo, Troy, Colorado State, North Texas, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern, Northern Illinois

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 8/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 13/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 9/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 11/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 6/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 4/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 6/12 (highest remaining: 9. Toledo)

Mountain West: 7/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 11/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 13/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia, 1. Alabama)

Sun Belt: 5/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)

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