The 128 Team Playoff, Day 11: Cincinnati vs. Texas State

by | Feb 10, 2022 | Cincinnati, Football, G5, Sun Belt, Texas State, The American

Photo courtesy of Cincinnati athletics

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 12

(2) Cincinnati vs. (15) Texas State

The Bobcats had a strong day considering how tough that Bearcat defense was all season.

Quarterback Brady McBride was 22-for-34 with 252 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and an interception.

Also, running back Calvin Hill had 81 rushing yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.

Texas State actually put up 28 points — tied for the most on the 2021 Cincinnati defense.

Unfortunately for Texas State, Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder was 26-for-38 with 341 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and a rushing touchdown.

Four different Bearcats scored a rushing touchdown. That includes leading rusher Jerome Ford, who ran for 135 yards on 20 carries.

Texas State impressed offensively, but Cincinnati is just too tough. The Bearcats win, 51-28.

Over the course of 100 simulations, Cincinnati won 94 of them, by an average margin of 40.1-10.8.

Winner’s Next Matchup: Winner of (7) UCF vs. (10) Utah State

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (2) Utah vs. (15) Arkansas State

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 10/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 14/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 10/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 14/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 12/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 4/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 10/12 (highest remaining: 9. Toledo)

Mountain West: 11/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 12/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 13/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia, 1. Alabama)

Sun Belt: 8/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)

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