FSU-Notre Dame Preview & Prediction

by quidnunct | Nov 9, 2018 | Previews

FSU-Notre Dame Game Info

South Bend, IN
7:00 Eastern, NBC
ND -17.5, O/U 54.5
FSU: 80th F/+ (102nd Offensive S&P, 39th Defensive S&P)
Notre Dame: 6th F/+ (27th Offensive S&P, 3rd Devensive S&P)
Last Games:
- FSU: Uhhh we beat UF this week in basketball…
- Notre Dame: W @ Northwestern, 31-21

When FSU’s on Offense

Do you remember the Clemson game? The game where we didn’t score until Clemson’s backups came in? Yeah, that defense was ranked #2 in S&P. The Notre Dame defense is #3. Notre Dame runs a 3-4/5-2 system, similar to what we’ve seen on our own defense for the last few years – except for the fact that the Irish are much better at keeping things in front of them and limiting explosive plays than we were. Notre Dame is Top 10 in most explosiveness metrics on defense and is an upperclassman-laden group. This is bad news for our team that sort of…uh…how do I say this…lives and dies by explosive plays. In addition to all this doom and gloom, I expect to have Deondre taking snaps under center, which brings its own set of problems. In addition, we haven’t found any sort of magic that will improve our offensive line, which is still desperately in need of an average player. This isn’t going to be pretty.

Sr DL Jerry Tillery: 22.5 tackles, 8.5 TFL. 7 sacks, 10.5 run stuffs, 3 FF (he’s 6-7. Why not start the 6′ even QB?)
Jr DL Julian Okwara: 26.5 tackles, 8 TFL. 3.5 sacks, 9.5 run stuffs, 1 INT
Jr DL Khalid Kareem: 23 tackles, 8 TFL. 4.5 sacks, 11 run stuffs
Sr LB Te’von Coney: 64 tackles, 8.5 TFL. 3 sacks, 10.5 run stuffs, 1 INT
Gr LB Drue Tranquill: 46.5 tackles, 6 TFL, 9 run stuffs.
Jr S Jalen Elliott: 37 tackles, 3 INT.
Jr CB Troy Pride, Jr: 30 tackles, 1.5 TFL. 1.5 run stuffs, 2 INT

When FSU’s on Defense

What a Twist (Who is Brandon Wimbush)

Thanks for making it through the horrible news. What I have here is simply…well, it’s not quite good, but it’s not a house of horrors. FSU’s defense has to be better than last week’s. Also, starting QB Ian Book is injured, so we will see the senior Brandon Wimbush. This is good news for the Noles. Book is VERY accurate, Wimbush is…not. Wimbush is more of a runner than Book, but can tend to run himself into trouble instead of out, and find himself trying to force a ball into coverage. They will have to adjust their offense to fit – Book was able to read defenses and go deep, while Wimbush will run more Zone Read and hit short routes.

Sr QB Brandon Wimbush: 42/76 (55.3%), 1/4 TD/INT, 46 rushes for 187 yards, 1 TD.
Sr RB Dexter Williams: 93 rushes for 568 yards (6.1 Y/C), 8 TDs. Averages about a catch per game.
Sr WR Miles Boykin: 6’4″…40 Receptions for 624 Yards (10.1 Yards/Target), 7 TDs.
Jr WR Chase Claypool: also 6’4″…36 Receptions for 448 Yards (8.5 Yards/Target), 3 TDs.

Also keep an eye out for Jafar Armstrong. They do use him (rushing and receiving), but come on, his name is JAFAR.

Other Factors

Notre Dame Kicker Justin Yoon is good. Really good. 10-14 FGs, long of 52. He can kick it. Punter Tyler Newsome is also a really good punter. This is not good news for the ‘Noles.