FSU-Wake Preview & Prediction

by | Oct 19, 2018 | Previews

FSU-Wake 2016

FSU-Wake Game Info

  • Tallahassee, FL (Homecoming)
  • 3:30 Eastern, ESPN2
  • FSU -10, O/U 60
  • FSU: 69th F/+ (116th Offensive S&P, 24th Defensive S&P)
  • Wake: 98th F/+ (76th Offensive S&P, 94th Devensive S&P)
  • Last Games:

When FSU’s on Offense

So here’s the thing – Wake isn’t really good at much of anything. If there’s a week that FSU can “get right,” it’s this one. The Deacs are average in defensive efficiency (down to down driving the field) – but they’re better in passing efficiency than rushing efficiency. This is a good thing for FSU’s first down runs – we might start to see what this offense can do when it’s not getting blown up. Wake is also horrible at what we’re good at – explosiveness, especially in standard downs (as opposed to passing downs).  I think we’ll try to work out a lot of the kinks in our offense, and I think we will be more successful offensively than we’ve seen in the past 6 games. Some Wake defenders to keep an eye on:

  • R-So DE Carlos “Boogie” Basham: 3 sacks, 4.5 TFL. Tall, but not broad.
  • R-Sr DT William Yarbary: 5.5 TFL. Run stuffer more than a pass rusher.
  • R-Jr LB Justin Strnad: 24 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks. True LB size at 6-3, 230.
  • Jr DB Essang Bassey: 31 tackles, 6 Pass Breakups, 1 INT. 5-10, 190. Most tackles on the team, but is shorter and doesn’t have the best stats in coverage.

When FSU’s on Defense

On offense, Wake is very…well…average. Almost. There is one thing that they are really good at – Pace. They run the fastest offense in the nation. Otherwise, as with their defense, they’re average at efficiency as well as Success Rate. They are not good, however, at creating explosive plays. They are going to try to kill you with a million short plays. Once again, Wake seems to play right into our strengths, as our defense wants to create negative plays, but will give up explosive plays. If they can’t hit what our defense is giving them, it’ll be a long day at the office for the Deacons. So who should we look for? Look no further than the list below:

  • Fr QB Sam Hartman: 55% completion, 10/6 TD/INT, 6.1 y/a. Is efficient, not explosive. Not a fantastic runner.
  • Jr RB Cade Carney: 5.2 yards/carry, 4 TDs. Can break off some runs.
  • Sr RB Matt Colburn II: 3.7 yards/carr, 2 TDs. He’s not much better than what his OL gives him.
  • R-So WR Greg Dortch: Really good receiver. Short and quick. 5 TDs, targeted on ~36% of passing plays. They’re going to throw to him a lot, but he only hauls in 2/3 targets.
  • R-Fr WR Sage Surratt: Taller receiver, not great hands, only hauls in half of the balls thrown his way.
  • SR WR Alex Bachman: 3 TDs, otherwise, he’s very average.

Other Factors

Wake is almost as bad at turnover luck as we are. There’s a decent shot for us to actually pick up a fumble. Remember, folks, forcing turnovers (which we’re really good at) is a skill. Recovering turnovers is luck.

Their specialists are nothing to write home about. The only note is that their punter is Dom Maggio. Do you think, just maybe, his parents were Yankees fans? Otherwise, we will have to take Dortch into account on punt returns. The same skills that help him in the passing game – short, quick, fast – really help with punt returns. If you kick it to him, he’ll try to return half the time. One-quarter of his returns have gone for touchdowns.

Score Predictions

John: FSU 42-14 – It’ll be a great match up of their rushing offense against our rushing defense.

Cory: FSU 48-24 – FSU gets out to an early lead, puts in the backups, and coasts to a win. (Wouldn’t that be nice!)

Let us know in the comments – what do you think the final score will be?