The 128 Team Playoff, Day 12: Utah vs. Arkansas State

by | Feb 11, 2022 | Arkansas State, G5, Pac-12, Sun Belt, Utah

Photo courtesy of Utah athletics

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 13

(2) Utah vs. (15) Arkansas State

The story of this game is a toss-up between a few things.

First, Utah’s defense had four interceptions against Layne Hatcher.

Second, Tavion Thomas had 171 yards and a touchdown on only 20 carries — good for 8.6 yards per carry.

Third, 20 different Red Wolves caught a pass. We have not been able to find out of if that’s a record for college football, but the record in the NFL is 12.

Utah quarterback Cameron Rising was incredibly efficient, passing for 263 yards and four touchdowns on only five incompletions.

Despite Hatcher’s four interceptions, he still had a decent game. He was 37-for-53 with 424 yards, two touchdowns, and, of course, the interceptions.

If not for the interceptions, maybe Arkansas State might have had a chance?

Unlikely, as Utah won by 42 points, 59-17.

In 100 simulations, Utah won all of them by an average margin of 48.9-14.3. To find an Arkansas State win, a total of 144 simulations was needed.

Winner’s Next Matchup: Winner of (7) Washington State vs. (10) Western Michigan

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (2) Pittsburgh vs. (15) Charlotte

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 10/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 14/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 10/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 14/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 12/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 4/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 10/12 (highest remaining: 9. Toledo)

Mountain West: 11/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 12/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 13/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia, 1. Alabama)

Sun Belt: 7/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)

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