FSU-Boston College Preview & Prediction

by | Nov 16, 2018 | News, Previews

fsu-boston college

FSU-Boston College Game Info

  • Tallahassee, FL
  • 3:30 Eastern, ESPN2
  • BC -1.5, O/U 48.5
  • FSU: 88th F/+ (104th Offensive S&P, 43rd Defensive S&P)
  • Boston College: 46th F/+ (86th Offensive S&P, 25th Defensive S&P)
  • Last Games:

When FSU’s on Offense

There is nothing new under the sun. We still have the same statue of a quarterback, with the same O-Line problems. There’s your bad news. Good news? Boston College’s defense, while ranking well above average, isn’t particularly good at any one thing. Their best feature is stopping explosive runs. They’re poor at stuff rate and average in defensive rushing efficiency. So what they’re really good at, we’re horrible at, and in this case, that’s okay. We will see the same issues moving the ball, but I have a feeling that after a week in which Tamorrion Terry had issues with drops, he’ll be out to prove that he’s better than that. Let’s take a look at BC’s defensive players:

  • Sr DE Zach Allen: 36 tackles, 13.5 TFL. 5.5 sacks, 13.5 Run Stuffs, 1 INT, 1 FF. Big body at 6’5, 285. He could be an issue for FSU’s “tackles”.
  • Sr DE Wyatt Ray: 28 tackles, 10.5 TFL. 9 sacks, 12 Run Stuffs. BC doesn’t sack much, but this guy is their Brian Burns.
  • R-Sr LB Connor Strachan: 58 tackles, 6 TFL. 3 sacks, 6 Run Stuffs, 1 FF. This is their Luke Kuechly.
  • So LB Isaiah McDuffie: 48 tackles, 5.5 TFL. 3.5 sacks, 10.5 Run Stuffs. This is their future Luke Kuechly – a good player at linebacker.
  • Sr DB Taj-Amir Torres: 34 tackles, 2 INT on 10 Breakups – 5’9 – matchup issue for them?
  • Jr DB Hamp Cheevers: 27.5 tackles, 6 INT (!!).

When FSU’s on Defense

Do you like up-tempo? Do you like the goal-line offense? Then you, my friend, will like Boston College’s offense. While Boston College will likely be starting backup quarterback EJ Perry, that doesn’t really change who BC is. AJ Dillon, their star running back, is 6’0, 245 lbs. He’s a big man. They also usually run 2 tight ends, giving them a 7-man front. All this, with a top-15 run rate – 71% run plays on standard downs, and 43.5% on passing downs – and the 4th fastest tempo in the nation. I know our linebackers have been horrible this year, but this might be the game where they’re able to pin their ears back and get into the running lanes, otherwise, I don’t trust them to read and fill yet. EJ Perry will likely run, but he is, first and foremost, a pro-style quarterback. Here’s, again, some names to watch out for:

  • So QB EJ Perry: 26-38 (68.4%), 2 TDs, 6.3 yards/attempt passing. 16 rushes for 95 yards (5.9/carry), 1 TD.
  • So RB AJ Dillon: 178 rushes for 936 yards (5.3/carry), 8 TDs. 7 catches for 42 yards, 1 TD.
  • R-So WR Kobay White: 24 catches for 379 yards. 3 TDs, 9 yards/target.
  • R-Sr TE Tommy Sweeney: 26 catches for 237 yards, 3 TDs. 6’5, 260. Could be a problem.
  • Sr WR Jeff Smith: 19 catches for 259 yards, 4 TDs. 17 rushes for 147 yards (8.6/carry), 1 TD.

Other Factors

Kicker Colton Lichtenburg is good, going 5/6 on field goals, but has never kicked one longer than 43. Punter Grant Carlson is Logan Tyler-esque in his punts. Take that for what you will. BC is great at disrupting kicks of all types – placekicks and punts alike. Their returner, Michael Walker, is fast. We need to make sure we keep the ball away from him on kicks, or we will probably get burnt.

Score Predictions

John: BC 21-10 – BC grinds FSU out, shortening the game with the run. This limits FSU’s already anemic offense, and we go into Thanksgiving with a 7th loss.

Cory: FSU 17-14 – Home cooking is the best medicine. That, and a game-winning kick from Ricky Aguayo AFTER he makes one that’s waved off by penalty.

 

Let us know in the comments – will FSU ever win again?

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