FSU-Miami Preview & Prediction

by | Oct 5, 2018 | News | 2 comments

Hurricane flags fly over the FSU Practice Fields

Credit: David Visser – Tomahawk Nation

FSU-Miami Game Info

  • Miami Gardens, FL
  • 3:30 Eastern, ABC
  • UM -13.5, O/U 48.5
  • FSU: 66th F/+ (109th Offensive S&P, 33rd Defensive S&P)
  • UM: 17th F/+ (24th Offensive S&P, 26th Devensive S&P)
  • Last Games:

When FSU’s on Offense

Hoo boy. First and foremost, we need to address the elephant in the room. Willie isn’t going to stop running the ball and we’re not going to become an air raid team. Additionally, our offensive “Stuff Rate” – the % of runs that are stopped behind or at the Line of Scrimmage – is dead last – 130th, at 29%. Miami’s defensive Stuff Rate is first in the nation, at 38.5%. This is likely to be very ugly.

Check out our article on a way we believe FSU can mitigate this issue. To this end, here’s some folks to watch for:

  • RS Sr DL Gerald Willis III – 23 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 2 Sacks
  • Jr DL Joe Jackson – 5 TFL, 3 Sacks
  • So DL Jonathan Garvin – 25 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 1.5 Sacks
  • Jr LB Shaquille Quarterman – 27 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 3 Sacks
  • Sr DB Jaquan Johnson – 22 tackles
  • Sr DB Jhavonte Dean – 2 INTs
  • Sr DB Sheldrick Redwine – 2 INTs

Yes, I just named 7 different players. This defense is no joke. DC Manny Diaz wants this team to play fast and aggressive. They will blitz from different directions all game long. They’re going to test our offensive line early and often. This is both a blessing and a curse, as while our O-Line has issues, we may be able to hit some of the explosive pass plays at which we’ve had success.

When FSU’s on Defense

So. Just to set the record straight. These are both amazing hits. Hit #1 wasn’t illegal at the time, but is now. Hit #2 was “illegal” at the time (I have a severe dislike for Jeff Flanigan), but is not, was not, and will never be illegal. I watch Hit #1 at least once a month, along with Derwin tossing a Gator lineman aside like a rag doll. Can you blame me?

Anyway, in the game against Louisville, we saw our defense struggle with throws across the middle of the field, and if it weren’t for Jawon Pass’ inability to, well, Pass, there’s no way we win the game. For Miami, N’Kosi Perry will likely get the call for his second straight start. The former 4-star eclipsed Malik Rosier for starting honors and went 8/12 for 125 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. He added 6 rushes for 26 yards on the ground.

Make no mistake, though – Miami’s offense goes through the running backs. They’ve run the ball about 60% of the time, and the last 4 games have shown an even greater commitment to the run. Travis Homer (63 carries, 364 yards, 1 TD) and DeeJay Dallas (48 carries, 338 yards, 2 TDs) may not be Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb, but the U’s tendency to run is starting to look like Richt’s Georgia offenses.

In the passing game, sophomore receiver Jeff Thomas is the ‘Canes leading receiver, with 320 yards and 2 TDs. True freshman TE Brevin Jordan has added 123 yards and 3 TDs, while redshirt junior Lawrence Cager has 174 yards and 4 scores.

The main question here will be FSU’s defense. Miami is the most complete offensive team FSU has faced to this point. Can our linebackers stay true to their assignments and execute proper eye discipline to be in the right place at the right time? Will Levonta Taylor not get burnt on a long shot play? Can our defensive line pressure N’Kosi Perry enough to keep him uncomfortable inside the pocket? Only time will tell.

Other Factors

Punter Zach Feagles is averaging less than 38 yards/punt and is inconsistent. Kicker Bubba Baxa (yes, his name is Bubba) is 4/5 on field goals with a long of 38. He’s missed his only kick from 40 or more yards.

BOLD Prediction – Bubba Baxa misses a game-winning kick wide right.

Score Predictions

John Cooper: I’m nervous about it, but I’m going to with Miami 31, FSU 21.

Cory Thorpe: The U, 38-27. I don’t think we can score on these guys often enough to win, and it’ll be a test for our defense. I have no confidence in a win.

Let us know in the comments – what do you think the final score will be?


  1. Bobby

    Miami wins this all day. FSU won’t be able to get anything going on offense.

    Miami 31 – FSU 13

    • Cory

      How do you think Miami will score – through the air or on the ground?