Mathematically Dreaming of the Playoffs

Everyone is waiting on pins and needles to see where their favorite team is at in the College Football Playoff Rankings. Not only does this tell us what four teams are positioning themselves for a playoff appearance but has major effects on other bowl game selections. Today we are going to detail the teams that are mathematically dreaming of the playoffs. If you have been here a time or two you understand we use the ESPN FPI and the percentage they give teams to appear in the playoffs. The FPI stands for Football Power Index and is ESPN’s mathematical formula to give power rankings. Right now we are down to ten teams that still have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs. Check it out and see if your team is listed.

The Frontrunners  

  • Georgia 99.6%
  • Michigan 98.5%
  • TCU 89.6%
  • Ohio State 70.7%

The big question is where will the playoff committee place Ohio State. We all went into this weekend with the general consensus that the loser of the Michigan and Ohio State game still had a chance to make it in. The committee’s job has been easy with their top four but adversity hits now. The prime replacement many are thinking is USC. Right now the FPI has these four as the front runners.

Next in Line

  • USC 19.5%
  • Alabama 16.5%

Next in line is Alabama and USC. The team no one wants to see is Alabama at almost 17%. We assume that USC will take over the #4 spot Tuesday night, but right now according to the FPI they are in the fifth best spot to make the playoffs. I think we can all agree that Alabama would not deserve to make the CFP but I can guarantee you that Georgia would not want to see them.

The Rest

  • Tennessee 4.3%
  • Penn State 0.8%
  • Clemson 0.3%

None of these teams have a real shot to make it. I would love to understand the math on how the bottom two were even given a probability to make it.

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