FPI: Playoff Odds Entering Week 9

We are entering Week 9 of the college football season and the momentum is picking up. This is the last week that separates us from the greatest month of college football — at least in one author’s opinion.

If you want to be a great college football team, you must be great in the month of November. That month is when conference championship pictures become clearer and when majority of the historical rivalries happen. The College Football Playoff picture also really starts to take shape.

Last week, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) gave mathematical percentages of 18 teams to make the playoff.

Now we are down to 17; here are the schools that still have a mathematical playoff chance, according to FPI.

Double Digit Percentages

  • Ohio State: 80.9%
  • Georgia: 68.5%
  • Clemson: 61.6%
  • Alabama: 53.6%
  • Tennessee: 51.5%
  • Michigan: 48.8%

Currently, there is a HUGE gap in this model between Michigan — the lowest spot in this category — to the highest spot team in the next category. One can safely assume that at least three teams above will make the College Football Playoff — if not all four.

Clemson is looking more likely to secure a spot as it has defeated all of its top competition in the Atlantic division. The Tigers’ remaining schedule is relatively manageable.

We can assume the winner of Ohio State and Michigan will be heading towards the playoff. Then it’s a question of whether the SEC gets two teams in again. Watch out for TCU in the list below.

The Rest

  • USC: 9.9%
  • TCU: 7.8%
  • Oregon: 5.1%
  • Penn State: 3.6%
  • Oklahoma State: 3.2%
  • Ole Miss: 1.6%
  • Utah: 1.6%
  • LSU: 1.2%
  • Texas: 0.7%
  • Wake Forest: 0.2%
  • Syracuse: 0.2%

Want a good laugh? Peek at a 5-3 Texas being listed here.

As the percentages suggest, the majority of these teams are a far cry out from reaching the playoff. TCU is the one to watch for in this category. If Penn State somehow upsets Ohio State this weekend, it could also rise to the category above.

Featured image courtesy of Michigan athletics