FPI: 18 Teams Have Mathematical Chance to Make College Football Playoff

We have reached Week 8 of the 2022 college football season.

It seems like the season just started, but we are already at the point where it’s put-up-or-shut-up time. Now that most teams have played seven games, we have a clearer picture of who will be making the College Football Playoff and who will not.

Today, we are going to look at the mathematical percentages that the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) gives teams to make the College Football Playoff. According to the FPI, there are 18 teams that have a mathematical possibility of making the playoff.

There are even two teams with multiple losses that have a chance, according to the FPI. Without further delay, let’s give it a closer look:

Teams over 50% (5)

  • Ohio State: 81.2%
  • Georgia: 70.2%
  • Clemson: 53.9%
  • Alabama: 52.8%
  • Michigan: 51.6%

Three of the teams listed above made the playoff last season. Michigan and Ohio State will play each other for their traditional rivalry game. The winner of that game will likely be representing the Big Ten East in the conference championship game.

As the SEC and Notre Dame-injected ACC have shown, multiple teams from the same conference can make the College Football Playoff. Could the Big Ten be next?

Clemson seems to only have one major hurdle left on its schedule. That is a top-15 Syracuse team that it will host on Saturday.

Georgia is still undefeated but anything is possible in the SEC, especially with a contest against a top-5 Tennessee lingering. The winner of the Ole Miss-Alabama game later this season will be increasing its playoff chances drastically.

Teams in the 10-49% Range (2)

  • Tennessee: 48.7%
  • Ole Miss: 11.1%

Honestly, we should have included Tennessee with the above group. Quarterback Hendon Hooker is now the Heisman Trophy frontrunner and has Volunteers fans reminiscing about 1998. Ole Miss still has a doozy of a schedule left that includes Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi State, LSU and Texas A&M.

Less than 10% (11)

  • USC: 7.8%
  • Texas: 7.8%
  • TCU: 5.5%
  • Oregon: 4.1%
  • Utah: 1.3%
  • Penn State: 1%
  • UCLA: .6%
  • Syracuse:.6%
  • Oklahoma State: .6%
  • LSU: .3%
  • UCF: .2%

There isn’t much to say about this section, but it does seem like undefeated teams should have higher playoff chances than ones that already have a loss. Also, a 7.8% playoff chance for Texas seems ridiculously high.

Featured image courtesy of Tennessee athletics

What are your thoughts on the teams still left in the hunt for the playoff? Give us your predictions on who makes it in the comments below!