Dreaming of the Playoffs

The leaves are changing colors, the weather is getting colder, and the play on the gridiron is getting hotter! Welcome to week 12 of the college football season, what some consider the best time of the year. We are hitting that point where the playoff picture is becoming crystal clear, and have our prospects of who is going to make it. With the ESPN FPI updating this morning we have an idea of which teams could still be dreaming of the playoffs. There are still fourteen teams that have a mathematical percentage of making the College Football Playoffs. So let’s go ahead and check out which teams are still living the dream.

The Major Prospects

  • Georgia 95.4%
  • Ohio State 86.7%
  • Michigan 62.8%
  • Tennessee 59.6%
  • TCU 32.7%

You maybe wondering why undefeated TCU is behind one loss Tennessee. It is important to remember that the FPI also has in their formula which teams are projected to win out. Right now Tennessee is at a 85% chance to win out, and it might actually benefit them in not playing their conference championship game. Tennessee has South Carolina and Vanderbilt left on the schedule so I would actually say that 85% chance to win out is actually pretty low. Meanwhile TCU still has Baylor, Iowa State and the Big 12 Championship game left. So I can definitely see why Tennessee is at a higher percentage to make the playoffs. Reference our previous article that details the remaining schedules of the four undefeated teams above.

Chaos would need to happen

  • Clemson 27.6%
  • Alabama 15.9%
  • USC 7.2%
  • LSU 5.3%

Right now Clemson and USC have the opportunity to be a one loss power five conference champion. The problem is that the ACC and PAC 12 are not being respected right now. Add that with the lack of a sexy out of conference win these two will be looking in from the outside. They definitely need chaos to happen and are dependent on it. Many would think the door is shut on Alabama as they will not win their division or conference. Yet this is college football and crazy things do happen. LSU is the wildcard here, because they have an avenue to win the SEC Championship. I do not care what happens anywhere else, if they win out right now and win the SEC they are in.

So you are saying there’s a chance?

  • Utah 4%
  • Oregon 1.4%
  • Penn State 1.2%
  • UNC 0.2%
  • Kansas State 0.1%

Everyone on this list besides UNC has multiple losses. You would assume that UNC would have the same shot as Clemson if they can beat the Tigers in the ACC Championship game.

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