College Football Playoff: FPI Projections Entering Week 1

Week 0 is the appetizer that you cannot order more of — an amazing sequence, but not enough to make you fully happy.

On Thursday night, we’ll begin five straight days of college football in Week 1. We get to see some of the best non-conference games of the season in the first full week.

During the College Football Playoff era, one loss is not a death sentence, but schools want to make it as unscathed as possible. Throughout the season, we will break down the likeliness of teams who could make the College Football Playoff.

We will use ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), and the percentage it gives each team. Currently, there are 30 teams that the FPI deem of having a playoff chance.

Perhaps surprisingly, two are Group of 5 teams. So check out the list below, and see if the FPI gives your team a chance to make it.


  • Clemson: 56.9%
  • Miami: 8.7%
  • Pittsburgh: 1.3%
  • NC State: 0.2%

Big Ten

  • Ohio State: 81.8%
  • Michigan: 16.7%
  • Penn State: 1.8%
  • Michigan State: 1.7%
  • Wisconsin: 0.6%

Big 12

  • Texas: 13.2%
  • Oklahoma: 11.5%
  • Oklahoma State: 3.7%
  • Baylor: 0.6%
  • Iowa State: 0.1%


  • Utah: 6.8%
  • Oregon: 0.9%
  • USC: 0.1%


  • Alabama: 78.8%
  • Georgia: 74.3%
  • LSU: 3.1%
  • Auburn: 1.9%
  • Texas A&M: 1.6%
  • Kentucky: 0.9%
  • Ole Miss: 0.8%
  • Arkansas: 0.1%
  • Tennessee: 0.1%
  • Mississippi State: 0.1%

FBS Independent

  • Notre Dame: 30.3%

American Athletic Conference

  • Cincinnati: 1%
  • UCF: 0.2%

Looking down the list, the FPI is almost guaranteeing that the trio of Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State will reach the College Football Playoff. With multiple SEC teams making it to the national championship multiple times now, it’s becoming normalized in projections.

Oklahoma fans have to be laughing somewhat to see Texas ahead of the Sooners. There are several at 0.1% that will likely be knocked off this projection list very soon.

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Featured image courtesy of Ohio State athletics