Photo credit: Russ Cannon/Hawaii athletics
Introduction
We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.
“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.
For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.
For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.
Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.
All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.
This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.
From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:
Match 29
(4) Minnesota vs. (13) Hawaii
The credit goes to Hawaii’s defense; it absolutely stifled the Golden Gopher offense.
Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan was only 11-for-19 passing with 144 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Treyson Potts was not much more effective — 58 yards on 11 carries.
Hawaii, on the other hand, had no problem moving the ball up and down the field. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro had 419 yards passing and three touchdowns.
Receiver Calvin Turner Jr. had a game-high 123 receiving yards on six receptions.
It didn’t ultimately impact the result, but Minnesota missing an extra point and four field goals is a perfect representation of almost everything going wrong for it.
Hawaii pulls off the first upset of the entire tournament on Day 28 in a game that wasn’t even close. Hawaii 33, Minnesota 13.
In 100 simulations, Minnesota did win a majority, but barely. Minnesota won 56 by an average margin of 22-20.3.
With Minnesota’s loss, the Big Ten has lost its first team. The Big Ten was the last conference to have all of its teams still standing.
Winner’s Next Matchup: Winner of (5) Boise State vs. (12) Stanford
Tomorrow’s Matchup: (4) Kentucky vs. (13) Navy
Updated Bracket
Teams Lost, In Order:
PLAY-IN
Massachusetts, Connecticut
ROUND 1
Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International, Temple, New Mexico, Bowling Green, Rice, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State, Arkansas State, Charlotte, Southern Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Duke, UNLV, Georgia Southern, UTEP, South Alabama, San Jose State, South Florida, Arizona, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Ball State, Minnesota
REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:
American: 9/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)
ACC: 13/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)
Big 12: 9/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)
Big Ten: 13/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)
Conference USA: 6/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)
Independents: 4/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)
MAC: 8/12 (highest remaining: 9. Toledo)
Mountain West: 9/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)
Pac-12: 11/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)
SEC: 13/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia, 1. Alabama)
Sun Belt: 6/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)