The 128 Team Playoff, Day 4: Ohio State vs. Florida International

by | Feb 3, 2022 | Big Ten, C-USA, Florida International, Football, G5, Ohio State

Photo courtesy of Ohio State athletics

Introduction

We’ve created a 130-team bracket using ESPN’s FPI as our ranking system.

“But, anyone can create a bracket, how will the games be simulated?” Great question; NCAA Game Sim was used.

For each game on the bracket, the matchup was simulated once and every day a write-up will be done.

For the matchup, player statistics will be simulated and included in the write-ups.

Finally, thanks to the NCAA Game Sim premium membership, we’ll show the results of doing 100 simulations all at once. This is to see if a given result was more towards the expected side or if a given result was more towards the upset or luckier side.

All of the results have been simulated and tabulated, so at the time of writing the introduction, the results are already in.

This is designed to be fun, so please enjoy.

From Georgia to Massachusetts, here’s the 130-team bracket:

Match 5

(1) Ohio State vs. (16) Florida International

Let’s just start with the performance of the game here: Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 652 yards and eight passing touchdowns.

Much like in the Rose Bowl, receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba absolutely showed out, posting a stat line of nine receptions for 232 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Receivers Garrett Wilson and Emeka Egbuka also hit the 100-yard mark, with Egbuka hauling in a 98-yard pass.

It wasn’t all bad for Florida International, though — it did not get shut out! Quarterback Max Bortenschlager had 182 yards passing and a touchdown.

For losing by over 50 points, receiver Bryce Singleton also had a great day with six receptions and 98 yards.

Ultimately, the Buckeyes rolled the Panthers, 66-7.

After running 100 simulations, Ohio State won all of them by a margin of 65.9-8.1, so the 66-7 result was about standard for these two teams.

Just for fun, we wanted to see how long it would take for the Panthers to get a victory. Even if it took 1,000 simulations to make it happen, we wanted to see it.

After 1,238 simulations, Florida International had not won once. In fact, the Panthers only kept it within 20 points 0.6% of the time — just seven of the 1,238 times.

In simulation 1,060, Florida International only lost by seven. This has been declared as close as it will get for the Panthers.

Winner’s Next Matchup: Winner of (8) Washington vs. (9) Illinois

Tomorrow’s Matchup: (1) Michigan vs. (16) Temple

Updated Bracket

Teams Lost, In Order:

PLAY-IN

Massachusetts, Connecticut

ROUND 1

Akron, New Mexico State, Florida International

REMAINING TEAMS BY CONFERENCE:

American: 11/11 (highest remaining: 2. Cincinnati)

ACC: 14/14 (highest remaining: 1. Clemson)

Big 12: 10/10 (highest remaining: 1. Oklahoma, 1. Oklahoma State)

Big Ten: 14/14 (highest remaining: 1. Ohio State, 1. Michigan)

Conference USA: 13/14 (highest remaining: 6. Western Kentucky)

Independents: 4/7 (highest remaining: 1. Notre Dame)

MAC: 11/12 (highest remaining: 9. Toledo)

Mountain West: 12/12 (highest remaining: 5. Boise State)

Pac-12: 12/12 (highest remaining: 2. Utah)

SEC: 14/14 (highest remaining: 1. Georgia, 1. Alabama)

Sun Belt: 10/10 (highest remaining: 5. Appalachian State)

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