Alabama’s path to the CFP

No one wants to see what is in the title above. Everyone was clamoring of the possibility of a two loss LSU team to make the CFP if they won the SEC. Well now they just lost to a mediocre Texas A&M team and have three losses. Why isn’t anyone mentioning that (two loss) Alabama’s shot to the College Football Playoff is not dead, and after this Saturday it could be thriving. Everyone wants to claim they are team chaos until it is benefiting Alabama. No one wants them there again but it’s a real possibility. So let’s check it out and see Alabama’s path to the CFP.

The Path

  • TCU loses in the Big 12 Title Game (Opponent Kansas State)
  • USC loses in the PAC 12 Title Game (Opponent Utah)

Right now most networks project the Crimson Tide to come in at the number six spot in the College Football Playoffs. The three teams projected to be directly in front of them are TCU, USC, and Ohio State. Chaos is still available to happen to two of these three teams.

USC has already played and lost to Utah. That game happened at Utah and now the Utes will travel to Los Angeles for the conference championship game. Meanwhile TCU will play against a Top 15 Kansas State team that they have beaten earlier in the season by ten points. It is not farfetched to think these two teams could go down this weekend. Projected CFP Top 7

#1 Georgia

#2 Michigan

#3 TCU

#4 USC

#5 Ohio State

#6 Alabama

#7 Tennessee

Why wouldn’t Tennessee jump Alabama?

I know what you are thinking, Tennessee beat Alabama head to head. In last months game Tennessee played the game of their life in Knoxville. Hendon Hooker was responsible for 441 out of 567 offensive yards for Tennessee. With the unfortunate injury to Heisman candidate Hendon Hooker these two are obviously not the same teams. The CFP committee is responsible for putting the best four teams in the playoffs. Right now Tennessee who hit their peak in October is not better than Alabama right now. Teams that lose multiple times in the month of November and one loss in blow out fashion have a hard argument to make for the CFP.

Why wouldn’t a one loss TCU team stay ahead of Alabama?

According to the ESPN FPI Alabama has a strength of schedule ranked at #8 while TCU is at #35. If TCU lost it may have to be a certain margin to officially keep them out. I think Alabama’s body of work gives them an argument over TCU.

Why wouldn’t a two loss USC team stay ahead of Alabama?

If Utah wins the PAC 12 Championship according to the transitive property 6-6 Florida would be better than USC. As you remember Florida beat Utah earlier in the season. It really doesn’t mean anything in the grand scheme of things, but I guarantee it will be brought up by the media. USC’s overall body of work wouldn’t compete with Alabama if they have the same amount of losses. USC’s Strength of Schedule is also so low at #57. They cannot afford a loss.

Two Losses is okay if you are part of the four best teams

If you asked the average Georgia fan which team they would rather see in the semifinals TCU or Alabama, they are picking TCU. Two loss national champions have happened in history as well (1960 Minnesota and 2007 LSU).Let’s not forget in 2017 when Alabama did not win the conference, or division. The CFP committee still put them in because it’s their job to put the four best teams in.

Quote from Nick Saban

“I don’t make those decisions, but I know what a resilient football team this has been. We’ve lost 2 games to Top Ten opponents (combined by four points), both on the last play of the game and both on the road. We could have easily won both games but didn’t. We’re a good football team, and hopefully people will recognize that, and we’ll get a chance.”

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